Looking at the Gophers March Madness/NIT resume

The Gophers’ victory Saturday at the Barn over Northwestern gave them their fourth “Quad 2” win of the season, and arguably their best overall victory — the first over a sure-fire tournament team. Now 14-7 on the season and 5-5 (seventh-place in the Big Ten), it’s fair to look ahead to March and what chances the Maroon & Gold have of playing in a postseason tournament.

Quad System

Since 2018, the NCAA has has used the NET rankings as one of the most important aspects of NCAA Tournament resumes. The “Quad” systems have dominated March Madness bubble talk ever since. So, before I jump into the Gophers’ resume; a Quad 1 win is: a Home victory over team ranked 1-30 in the NET, 1-50 on Neutral court, and 1-75 on the road. Quadrant 2 is: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135, Quadrant 3 is: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240 and Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353.

Gophers’ Resume (Feb. 5)

• Overall: 14-7
• Big Ten: 5-5
• Road: 5-3
• Neutral: 0-1
• Quad 1: 0-3
• Quad 2: 4-3
• Quad 3: 1-1
• Quad 4: 9-0
• Current NET ranking: 91

As it sits on Feb. 5, the Gophers are 0-3 in Quad 1 games this season. The frustrating part is two of those games were very winnable and the third wasn’t too far behind. A two point loss at home to Wisconsin, a 10-point loss on the road to Michigan State and a 10-point loss on the road to Ohio State to open Big Ten play were the only three Quad 1 opportunities Minnesota has had this season.

In Quad 2 games, Minnesota is 5-3 this season. The wins were against Nebraska (home), Michigan (road), Maryland (home), Penn State (home) and Northwestern (home). The losses were Iowa (home), Indiana (road) and San Francisco (neutral).

One thing hurting the Gophers’ resume, is their lone Quad 3 loss, which would be looked at as a “bad loss” by any metric. Missouri is currently ranked 137th in the NET, losing to them by two at home, even though it was game three of the season is a negative mark on their resume.

One other reason why I was so critical of the Gophers’ poor non-conference scheduling, is their “marquee” home game was vs. a Quad 3 opponent and they played only one opponent Quad 2 or better. For example a school like Wisconsin played only five Quad 4 games compared to the Gophers’ nine.

NCAA Tournament Resume:

Minnesota has not played in the NCAA Tournament since the 2018-19 season. At this point of the season, it would be very unlikely for the Gophers to build an at-large bid deserving resume, but it is not impossible. As the current NET rankings sit today, and they’re subject to change, they would have six more Quad 1 opportunities this season.

• Michigan State (home)
• Iowa (road)
• Purdue (road)
• Nebraska (road)
• Illinois (road)
• Northwestern (road)

I believe if the Gophers win four out of these six games and don’t lose to Penn State or Rutgers at home, they would work themselves firmly onto the bubble before the Big Ten Tournament. I realize how un-realistic that sounds, but it’s not impossible. They would then be 4-5 vs. Quad 1 opponents. This would put them somewhere around 11-9 in conference play. A road win over Purdue or Illinois would give them their marquee resume win. Minnesota will likely not be favored to win a single one of these matchups, so it is already a tall-task, but not impossible.

NIT Hopes:

Playing in the NIT is a MUCH more realistic hope for Gophers fans. In the offseason, the NIT changed their selection process, no longer extended bids to every regular season conference winner, and instead having the top 2 teams from the Big Ten (and the rest of the major conferences) not in the National Tournament, according to the NET, automatically qualifying and they will also be guaranteed to host a first-round matchup.

Right now, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State and Nebraska are all in the field according to Joe Lunardi. According to the NET, Iowa (60), Ohio State (68) and Maryland (78) are all ranked ahead of the Gophers (91). Therefore in the current standings, Minnesota would have to jump two of those three teams to automatically qualify. So solid Quad 1 opportunities vs. Michigan State and Iowa become nearly must-win games.

The NIT will also round out its 32 team field with the 20 best teams available, but given the new selection process, I would imagine that those will likely be handed out to the top mid-major programs to miss the big dance.

Realistic Goals/Chances:

Any realistic bracket aggregator out there would probably give the Gophers less than a 3% chance of making the Big Dance. But I would say after their continued climb up the NET rankings, their chances of playing in the NIT might be anywhere from 30-40%.

With all that being said, Michigan State at home (Tuesday) and Iowa on the road (Sunday), might be their two most winnable Quad 1 games remaining this season, therefore this is likely the most important two-game stretch of the season for Ben Johnson and the Gophers. But the fact that I am able to even right this article, means that this program is trending in the right direction.